Article
citation information:
Janoš, V.,
Kříž, M. Pragmatic approach in regional rail transport
planning. Scientific Journal of Silesian
University of Technology. Series Transport. 2018, 100, 35-43. ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2018.100.4.
PRAGMATIC
APPROACH IN REGIONAL RAIL TRANSPORT PLANNING
Summary. In the field of transport planning in the Czech
Republic, there is increasing need not only for infrastructure planning, but
also for public transport planning and creating operational concepts. Public
transport, as well as investments and operationally intensive industries,
requires a guaranteed long-term strategy in the field of transport services.
The first prerequisite for successful transport planning is the most accurate
description of passenger flows, including the parameters affecting the choice
of transport mode. These inputs constitute an important basis for the following
steps: setting up the line network, timetable design, managing the circulation
of vehicles and courses of staff, controlling, and any eventual requests for
infrastructure improvements. There are currently, in the Czech Republic, few
transport models that provide relevant outputs for transport planning tasks in
public services. For this reason, we use a variety of heuristics, one of which
is described via a practical example, i.e., the transformation of a timetable
concept on a selected rail network, including the effects resulting from a
change in the number of passengers.
Keywords: public transport
planning; public transport service; passenger transport; railway timetable;
gravity model; timetable planning.
1. objectives of transport planning
Currently, transport planning in
the Czech Republic stands on its factual beginnings. Institutionally, transport
planning was established by the Law on Public Passenger Transport Services
(194/2010 Coll.), with individual purchasers of public transport thus required
to build transport plans to reflect its scope. Public transport, in terms of
the concept of transport service quality, is more than just a social service
for those who have no other option, but whose aim is to achieve overall
transport accessibility in the region. In short, public transport represents an
attractive alternative to individual transport.
It is clear that public transport
cannot cover all the passenger flows, nor satisfy all transport needs of
individuals. Public transport, with respect to the need for compensation
(income from fares does not cover the cost of providing), must include elements
of the mass. If there are common transportation needs of individuals in a
certain place and time, the transport flow is formed, which can then be
addressed by public transport organized on a collective basis. With respect to
the rational planning of public transport and the final volume of funds for
compensation payments, these resources cannot be spent inefficiently on the
transportation of single individuals, as this would deny resources to ensure a
satisfactory level of transport relations with much higher demand.
Theoretical public transport
planning consists of seven classic steps:
1. Estimation
of passenger flows (part of transport modelling)
2. Setting
up the line network plans
3. Implementation
of line networks within the infrastructure (modal choice revision)
4. Timetable
design
5. Circulation
plans of vehicles and staff courses
6. Evaluation
of operation performance and controlling
7. Defining
the requirements for infrastructure improvements
In this article, we only pay
attention to the first point. Any information regarding transport relations and
passengers is important for line network planning and timetable improvements.
Outputs from the gravity model, introducing the core and collecting lines with
high (not yet used) potential, will be gradually applied to the ongoing
optimization of single areas in the region.
Using the example of the
Ústí nad Labem Region (one of the 14 regions in the Czech
Republic responsible for regional public transport), we will describe how the
simple principles of the well-known gravity model were used in public transport
planning and what practical result was achieved.
2. Conditions for surveying transport relations in the Czech Republic
Identifying transport relations is
a difficult task in the Czech Republic.
In most cases, when it is necessary
to define transport relations using transport modelling, you cannot use the
classic four-stage transport model or the EVA model based on the principles of
transport demand and supply.
Classic intelligent transport
modelling methods are typically without the necessary databases, with the
available data in many instances lacking the temporal relationship in terms of
the “same time”. Many data that are important to understand
transport demand (level of population, number of jobs, educational facilities
etc.) and usually collected for each zone are simply not available in the
required quality and detail.
Although purchasers of public
transport (public authorities) are responsible for transportation planning in
their territory, creating high-quality transport models should not pose a major
priority. However, they are usually not even willing to finance the necessary
surveys to obtain data on population mobility and travel behaviour. In cases
where models, based on classical four-stage transport models, are applied in
the Czech Republic, very rough data or generally available external data (e.g.,
from Germany) are often used.
In view of the above, it is
necessary to establish priorities in public transport very easily. For this
reason, his paper presents gravity models using basic data that are generally
available in the Czech Republic.
The information on passenger flows
is currently available mainly in the form of CSO data (Census 2001, 2011),
including data on the number of permanent residents in the municipalities and
their local areas, as well as information about regular commuting. Further
information is available from carriers, such as about the load factor, number
of boarding and alighting passengers at each stop, in the form of
origin-destination matrices. More information on origins and destinations
relate mainly to the number of employment opportunities (data from major
employers) and regularly commuting schoolchildren, with these data used in abundance
in the case of the larger optimization of timetables in the region.
Available CSO data are not broken
down by the mode of transport attributable to a specific origin-destination
pair, because this is information about total passenger flows across all modes
of transport. On the contrary, data from carriers are exclusively related to a
certain type of service and thus only have explanatory power for passengers who
already use public transport.
For a description of all passenger
flows in the region across all transport modes, we must use theoretical
transport models. Thus, established passenger flows can be followed based on
the availability of origin and destination information according to each mode
of transport. In turn, theoretically calculated passenger flows assign a
theoretical modal split, which emphasizes the importance of the role played by
public transport in a whole transport system where there is generally a high
demand for transport and identified passenger flows, while, at the same time, potential
usage of public transport is maximized.
Today, no region has yet processed
a quality transport model, because the benefits of high-quality and
comprehensive transport modelling in the Czech area are still not fully
appreciated. What is missing, however, are quality travel surveys, as well as
surveys on transport behaviour and sensitivity of users towards parameters of
the public transport offer. Finally, it is difficult, or even impossible, to
group incommensurable time-related data needed for transport model settings.
For the purpose of transport
planning, incremental theoretical gravity models of passenger flows in the
region are therefore often used. The output of these models is the proportional
comparison of the significance of passenger flows, typically associated with
the theoretical calculation of the modal split.
From the gravity model, when taking
into consideration the modal split, we can see how public transport is
successful in individual relations. It clearly follows that the disproportion
in the region and the relations represents the greatest potential for growth in
public transport. The juxtaposition of relations can also be inferred where
there is potential for core railway lines, connecting railway lines and core
bus services.
3. Using the gravity model and application of
outputs
In 2011, the author of this article
created an extensive gravity model for the Ústí nad Labem Region,
based on the well-known “Lill’s travel law” [2]:
(1)
where:
- vij passenger
flow between i-th and j-th places
- k gravity
constant
- Qi source/origin
potential of i-th place
- Zj destination
potential of j-th place
- wij deterrence
function
The model assumes that the
transport relation between settlements (Qi and Zj) increases with their size
and decreases with transport resistance (usually time or geographic distance).
In the case of a proportional comparison, we can omit the constant k; however,
in this solution, the use of a territorial, regional and district
administrative hierarchy was reflected by constants from 0.7 to 0.9. Travel
resistance wij in this case was determined as the square of travel
time. Source and destination (Qi, Zj) in this case were
determined as the square root of the number of inhabitants of the cities (with
the square root, we can take into consideration a higher level of attraction or
production of individual cities). The trip matrix was assumed to be
symmetrical. The calculation results were thus only numerical values, which,
after conversion, reflected the “relative size” of traffic flow.
The aim of developing the gravity
model was to determine the proportional comparison significance of individual
transport relations in the region, according to relative significance.
In addition, we sought to find out
which relations generally have the highest theoretical travel potential and
what the public transport offer is today, which is provided in relations with a
“similar” significance. Furthermore, a relative comparison was made
of the availability of public/private transport, and we ultimately defined the
relationship growth potential for public transport and endangered relations
(where a fundamental change in the operational concept of public transport
needed to be carried out).
Within the configuration of the
model, all the towns in the Ústí nad Labem Region with more than
5,000 inhabitants (27 towns) were taken into consideration, including the usual
destinations in regular commuting to neighbouring regions and the capital city
of Prague (13 additional targets).
The basis for the model processing
were the CSO data (Census 2001), while the comparison of travel times was based
on timetables (2010/11) that were available at that time, as well as a publicly
available route planner (for centre-centre relations). We also considered the
travel time by public transport with connections showing regularity or
“usual” travel time. For reaching a public transport station, a
surcharge of 20 min was generally applied. Average waiting time for a
service/connection has been neglected.
During the assembly of the model,
we categorized relations showing daily commutes from sessions without daily
commutes. Interval connection was initially ignored, as it applies the premise
that, in daily commutes, it is hardly acceptable that the interval between
connections in public transport will significantly exceed the regular travel
time.
For determining the modal split, we
used outputs from the “Configuration of IFIT Nodes in the Czech Rail
Network” research and development project, carried out in 2007-2010 by
the Czech Technical University, after being commissioned by the Czech Ministry
of Transport.
Fig. 1. Modal split in public
transport on the transport market
For processing the outputs of a
gravity model, we first compared the travel times by public transport and by
individual transport.
Fig. 2. Extract of the
time-availability matrix
Based on the travel-time
comparison, a theoretically achievable modal split was calculated for public
transport in individual relations.
Fig. 3. Extract from the matrix of
the theoretically achievable modal split
The last step was to calculate the
proportional transport relations, which were weighted by the theoretically
achievable modal split. This defined relations with the greatest potential for
public transport development, while, at the same time, it was clear where the
public service offer was already close to theoretical saturation.
Fig. 4. Extract from the matrix of
the theoretically achievable modal split, weighted by the travel time
ratio
Based on the outputs of the gravity
model (among other outputs), relations with a similar “travel
importance” were compared and their offer of transport connections was
evaluated. For functional testing of the hypothesis concerning the
“theoretical similarities” of transport relations, the regional
Litoměřice - Ústí nad Labem rail relation was selected
in cooperation with the Ústí nad Labem Region. Using the gravity
model, we calculated a very similar theoretical significance between this
transport relation and another regional relation, i.e., Roudnice nad Labem -
Lovosice - Ústí nad Labem. In both cases, those are the relations
with intensive daily commutes, where the main destination is the city of
Ústí nad Labem. In areas with a daily commute, the transport
connections offer during the morning peak hours (which is shorter and more
intensive than in the afternoon rush hour) is decisive.
Meanwhile, for the relation
Roudnice nad Labem - Lovosice - Ústí nad Labem in the morning
peak hours (about 5:30 to 8:00), a 30-min interval for connections was already
offered at the time of the modelling (2011), while, in the relation
Litoměřice - Ústí nad Labem, only four connections
involving irregular intervals were offered at the same time.
For both compared relations, we can
see that, in the transport peak hours in the early morning, only a regional
rail connection is offered (in the morning rush hour, neither long-distance
trains, nor connections by bus operate in these relations). Passengers in these
relations can travel only by regional rail or individually.
A change was made in the timetable
and operation concept in 2012 in the relation Litoměřice -
Ústí nad Labem, introducing a 30-min interval connection to the
morning peak hours (creating an identical offer to that of the relation
Roudnice nad Labem - Lovosice - Ústí nad Labem, with identical
theoretical significance).
In 2013, the change in the number
of passengers in the relation Litoměřice - Ústí nad
Labem was evaluated, based on an autumn census campaign of rail passengers and
comparisons in the period 2010-2014.
Table 1
Development of the number of
passengers between Litoměřice - Ústí nad Labem
|
Year |
Number of passengers
[%] |
|
2010 |
100.00 |
|
2011 |
96.20 |
|
2012 |
101.78 |
|
2013 |
108.42 |
|
2014 |
106.89 |
Between 2010 and 2011, the original
operational concept functioned, while, in 2012 and 2013, the timetable was
reorganized according to the new extended concept. In view of the fact that the
results of the census were not public, the number of passengers was
relativized, with a default considered for 2010 (100% of passengers). Due to
the introduction of a new connection offer, an increase in the number of
passengers by 8% occurred after two years in the relation Litoměřice
- Ústí nad Labem. The number of passengers from the 2014 autumn
census campaign shows that some of the passengers who responded to the new
offer were long-term “new users” of public transport in this
relation.
For completeness, it is necessary
to add that, throughout, the condition “ceteris paribus” was
followed, i.e., that there were no major changes that could affect the demand
for transport, except changes to the operational concept in the railway
timetable.
There is generally verifiable that,
in the Czech Republic, the total response time for passengers (settling their
number) occurs at first after about three years following the concept change to
the timetable. At this point, however, as only data for three years of the new
operation (2012, 2013 and 2014) can be evaluated, it is thus premature to draw
conclusions about the elasticity of passenger demand related to
interval/frequency connections in regional traffic.
4. conclusion
Although gravity models, when used
in operational concept planning of public transport, represent only very
limited support tools, in the case of regional rail services in the
Ústí nad Labem Region, it has been demonstrated that such tools
can be used to detect the potential for developing public transport and
contribute to improving the offer in the relation where improvement would have
tangible benefits.
For the purchasers of public
transport, they need to be aware of which areas have potential for growth in
public transport. The proportional comparison of the significance of single
transport relations can even contribute to the elimination of historically
originated incommensurability. In addition, the outputs of the gravity model
are utilized for the optimization of public transport projects, in the construction
of backbone lines, even by modal optimization, and in the planning of necessary
capacities.
The practical application of a
gravity model in the Ústí nad Labem Region clearly showed
positive results in the regional rail relation Litoměřice -
Ústí nad Labem. This in turn has contributed to the fact that the
Ústí nad Labem Region will further continue to modify and develop
operational concepts in regional transport in such relations, where the treated
gravity model shows significant potential for increasing the modal split in
public transport.
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Received 13.04.2018; accepted in revised form 17.08.2018
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